Five hands everyone plays wrong.
The casino's edge isn't mostly the rules. It's five decisions, made wrong at nearly every table, every night, and one placard that reads 6:5. Here's the math, then the drill.
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You have 16. Dealer shows a 10.
Hit.
Surrender if the table allows it.
This is what Count21 tells you, on every hand, until you no longer need it.
The hands
16 vs 10
- Common:
- Stand, "I'll bust"
- Correct:
- Hit (surrender if offered)
Hitting −0.540, standing −0.540, surrender −0.500. Nearly a tie, and the tie breaks toward hitting.
Soft 17 vs 6
- Common:
- Stand, "it's a 17"
- Correct:
- Double
Doubling is worth about 0.25 of your bet more than standing. A soft hand can't bust on one card and a 6 is the dealer's weakest upcard.
8,8 vs 10
- Common:
- Hit, "don't put more money on a loser"
- Correct:
- Split
A hard 16 is the worst total in the game. Two hands starting on 8 are better in expected value, even against a ten.
Insurance
- Common:
- Take it, "protect the blackjack"
- Correct:
- Decline
2:1 on a 30.8% chance. The one exception is a high true count, which is a counting decision, not a hunch.
The 6:5 table
- Common:
- Sit at the first open seat
- Correct:
- Walk
+1.39% on the house edge, more than every other rule variation put together.
The math
| Hand | Play | Expected value |
|---|---|---|
| 16 vs 10 | Hit | −0.540 |
| 16 vs 10 | Stand | −0.540 |
| 16 vs 10 | Surrender | −0.500 |
| Soft 17 vs 6 | Double | +0.249 |
| Soft 17 vs 6 | Stand | −0.006 |
Per unit bet, computed by the Count21 engine for a six-deck game where the dealer hits soft 17.
Why these five
Casino observation studies put the average player's mistakes at roughly one hand in eight, giving back about 0.8% of every dollar wagered on top of the house edge the rules already provide. That's the difference between a 0.5% game and a 1.3% game. These five hands are where to start.
Source: Zender, B. (2009). Player Error Factors in Blackjack. Casino Enterprise Management, April 2009.
“I thought my Hi-Lo count was fine until the trainer showed me where I was drifting. A week of twenty minutes a day and it stuck.”
“Two weeks of practice before Vegas. I knew what to do with every hand, and the dealer never had to prompt me. That was the whole point.”
Four of them, right here.
16 vs 10, a pair of eights, 11 vs 6, 12 vs 2. Inside, the drill queues every hand you miss and brings it back until you stop missing it.
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Questions
Where do these numbers come from?
The Count21 engine computes the expected value of every legal action for your exact rules: deck count, soft-17 rule, double after split, surrender. The figures on this page are for a six-deck game where the dealer hits soft 17. Change the rules in the trainer and the numbers change with them.
Is 16 vs 10 really a tie?
Close enough that the argument at the table will never end. Hit edges it. Surrender, where offered, beats both.
Isn't doubling a 17 reckless?
A soft 17 can't bust on one card. Against a 6, the dealer busts more than against any other upcard. It's the opposite of reckless; it's the most under-played positive-EV double in the game.
What about the other mistakes?
There are more, and the drill covers all of them. These five are the ones that cost the most, most often.
